Oil Dependency and the Coming Crisis
-Written by: J.W. Jr.
I was asked by a good friend to write a blog about our dependence on oil. I’m not an expert on the topic but my research has left me deeply concerned about my family’s future. I should also say that this blog’s intention is only to summarize the views of the “peak oil” movement. There are alternative and more optimistic views that I won’t be covering at this time.
Let me first state that our addiction to oil is absolute. Our world’s economy, in its current state, would not function if oil production diminished as rapidly as many believe it soon will. As we run out of fossil fuels, we’ll need real and adequate alternatives in place and we’re looking to come up far short. Today’s renewable solutions are still dependent upon oil for fabrication. Devices that harness wind and solar power and then store those electric currents for later use are nowhere near as efficient as they need to be. A failure to come up with alternatives could lead to a cataclysmic change of events.
A growing number of our society’s leaders: lawyers, CEOs, politicians, investors, and scientists are coming to the realization that a global energy crisis could be coming sooner rather than later. “Hubbert’s Peak” is a theory that looks historically at our rate of discovery of new oil reservoirs vs. our consumption of oil. Hubbert’s numbers show that we are currently sitting at the peak of worldwide oil production. In the near future, when oil production begins to decline as demand for energy increases exponentially worldwide, it’s believed that there will not be sufficient energy to sustain life as we know it.
One of the most convincing experts on the Peak Oil scene is Matthew Simmons, a hugely successful energy investor. His book, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, describes, in laymen terms, scientific findings regarding the Saudi oil industry and concludes they’re running out much more rapidly than previously thought. He is aggressively seeking help to establish alternative sources of energy for our country and the world. His message to other investors is severe: “crude oil has peaked, it’s future decline could be swift, we lack the resources and tools to offset decline, and we are still ‘highly dependent’ on old and unaudited super-giant oil fields.” He’s also mentioned that the most recent decline in oil production and prices will likely exacerbate the problem because the oil industry is in desperate need of funding for maintenance and renovation. You can check out Simmons’ presentations at http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches.
Matt Savinar, a licensed attorney in California, is someone who’s literally dedicated his life to the topic of Peak Oil. He’s the creator of the site www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net. His message is very clear and to the point: “Dear Reader, Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon.” Savinar has recently devoted a majority of his time toward his family’s survival preparedness. He’s recognized that a swift decline in oil production without viable energy alternatives would lead to global economic collapse and cataclysmic shortages in supplies, particularly food. The online community he’s created is very active and full of helpful people. I encourage everyone to read what they have to say.
You may be wondering what has Mr. Savinar, a lawyer with his life ahead of him, preparing us for the disaster of all disasters. It’s probably The Olduvai Theory, written by Richard C. Duncan, PhD. The theory explains that the abundance of electricity has led to a population boom that can only be supported by fossil fuels for approximately 100 years: 1930 to 2030. It then examines how a decline in oil production would lead to permanent electrical blackouts worldwide. The theory goes on to state that “world population will decline proximate with [world energy availability].” Different opinions are expressed regarding world population decline, but the theory speculates that renewable energy sources would only support 2 billion people worldwide. That kind of apocalyptic message is almost impossible to accept, but I challenge you to find an adequate argument against that scenario.
It would be one thing if these were discussions held by extremist organizations or individuals with significant emotional problems. But the people making these claims are intelligent and highly successful in their careers. Doctors, lawyers, CEOs, politicians, and scientists… People from all walks of life and varying political spectrums. Don’t take my word for it, however. I implore you all to do some research on this issue. This blog is only a taste of what’s out there.
I see a world that will be dependant on oil right to the bitter end. Just as we’re dependent upon credit in today’s economy, we’ll hold onto oil regardless of the potential consequences because we refuse to give up the “high life”. It takes shocking events like the collapse of multi-billion dollar corporations and worldwide blackouts to get people to notice there’s a problem. But then, there isn’t much hope that those in power will make good decisions and steer us toward salvation, either. In the case of our current economic crisis, poor decisions have been made by the U.S. government that will likely prolong our troubles for many years. My friends, the same is the case with the leaders in the oil industry. According to Simmons, they’ve done a very poor job analyzing their own shortcomings and reacting to known deficiencies.
The solution may be that we revert to a very urban way of life (rather than suburban). We consolidate near our schools, businesses, and grocery stores. We use muscle to get to and perform our work. We give all the remaining fossil fuels to our farmers and alternative energy researchers. And eventually, we become masters of renewable energy. It will be the biggest challenge in humanity’s history and I believe we will eventually prevail.
But when the oil crunch begins, we may all make drastic and counter-productive decisions before we calm down and accept our fate. Because there is no solution or plan currently in place, I believe there will be a harsh transition period before civilization stabilizes again. We can either learn to become completely independent of society, lead the way toward resolving this problem for everyone, or hope someone figures this all out just in the nick of time. Fortunately, we still have that choice.
Good luck to us all.
Sources:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
http://www.oilcrisis.com/duncan/OlduvaiTheorySocialContract.pdf
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Thanks for allowing me to post this here! This is a very important topic and a massive consideration as we prepare for a depression worse than ever imagined!
December 31st, 2008 at 3:44 pm
dzaWsR Thanks for good post